(Editor’s note: Read the latest version of the MLB playoff picture)
With less than two weeks to go until the MLB playoffs begin, the chase for the postseason is barreling toward the finish line. But what if the MLB regular season ended Monday?
If it did, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers would receive first-round byes in the National League, with the Milwaukee Brewers winning the Central and the Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins nabbing wild-card spots. In the American League, the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros would get byes, with the Minnesota Twins winning the Central and the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, and Texas Rangers gaining wild-card berths.
The third-seeded Twins would play the Rangers (No. 6), and the Rays (No. 4) would play the Blue Jays (No. 5) in the AL wild-card games. The NL wild-card games would pit the Brewers (No. 3) against the Marlins (No. 6), and the Phillies (No. 4) against the Diamondbacks (No. 5).
GO DEEPERKepner: Pulled back to the ballpark, for a day of Phillies-Braves. No, Lefty — it never gets oldWhich teams should you be watching this week? The Athletichas you covered as the2023 MLB playoff picture continues to take shape. The potential matchups will be updated every week.
(Graphic: John Bedford / The Athletic)
American League standings
AL division leaders
| Team | W | L | DIVISION LEAD | GB NO. 1 | THIS WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
93 | 56 | 2 | - | at HOU, at CLE | |
84 | 66 | 1.5 | 9.5 | vs. BAL, vs. KC | |
79 | 71 | 7.0 | 14.5 | at CIN, vs. LAA |
AL wild-card race
National League standings
NL division leaders
| Team | W | L | DIVISION LEAD | GB NO. 1 | THIS WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
96 | 53 | 15 | - | vs. PHI, at WSH | |
91 | 57 | 13.5 | 4.5 | vs. DET, vs. SF | |
84 | 65 | 6.5 | 12 | at STL, at MIA |
NL wild-card race
| TEAM | W | L | GB DIV | GB WC | THIS WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 | 68 | 15 | Up 3.5 | at ATL, vs. NYM | |
79 | 72 | 13.5 | Up 0.5 | vs. SF, at NYY | |
78 | 72 | 18.5 | - | vs. NYM, vs. MIL | |
78 | 72 | 6.5 | - | vs. PIT, vs. COL | |
78 | 73 | 7 | 0.5 | vs. MIN, vs. PIT | |
76 | 74 | 16 | 2 | at ARI, at LAD |
Key pitchers
Rangers at Twins
Consider Griffin Jax a little bit of a stand-in for everyone in the Twins bullpen not named Jhoan Duran. For nearly three months in the middle of the season, Jax was the go-to set-up guy for Duran, locking up hold after hold. Over the last month, however, Jax’s ERA is sitting near nine, and the Twins pen feels a lot shakier than it did before. Every eventual World Series champion needs a Tyler Matzek or a Ryan Brasier to step up and get key outs. Minnesota will need to find that guy, be it Jax or Louie Varland or Brock Stewart.
GO DEEPERTwins rookie Louie Varland's rise from Division II late bloomer to 100 mph playoff weaponBlue Jays at Rays
Which Aaron Civale is going to show up in October? The one who excelled for four months in Cleveland or the one enduring a rough patch these last few weeks for Tampa Bay?
Civale continues to keep the Rays in games — he’s allowed more than three runs just twice in 21 starts this season — but he isn’t going as deep into them. The Rays’ rotation has lost Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen this season, and Tyler Glasnow has been hit harder his last couple times out. To win a wild-card series, the team that altered our perceptions of what a starter could be still needs quality innings from its rotation.
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Marlins at Brewers
Brandon Woodruff’s three September starts: 22 innings pitched, 11 hits, 19 strikeouts, one earned run. It’s a reminder that Milwaukee has arrived at the final fortnight of the season with a relatively comfortable lead in the NL Central despite just 10 starts from the right-hander, whose ERA in those games is down to 1.89.
Not many teams can match Corbin Burnes with an ace of their own for Game 1 in a postseason series. Maybe no team can match Woodruff in Game 2 when he’s pitching like this.
Diamondbacks at Phillies
In consecutive starts to close the month of August, Aaron Nola finished the seventh inning in pitching Philadelphia to a victory. In the seven starts around that pair, Nola has recorded a total of one out after the fifth inning. He hasn’t finished the fifth in any of his three September starts.
It’s a puzzling stretch in a puzzling season for the right-hander, whose 4.62 ERA makes 2021 look less like an outlier and more like the start of a downward trend. For a guy about to hit free agency, this postseason could be doubly important to assuage doubts about his stuff and re-establish himself as one of the game’s best starters.
(Graphic: John Bradford / The Athletic)
Most interesting race: American League East
What a gut-check performance on Sunday by the Orioles, who rallied late to win in extras, split their four-game series with the Rays and stay two games up — three in the loss column — with two weeks to go.
GO DEEPEROrioles, Rays clinch playoff berthsSo much remains at stake here: The winner will get the top seed in the American League, solidifying home-field advantage through the AL Championship Series and avoiding the wild-card round altogether. The loser will get stuck playing a best-of-three series at home against either the Blue Jays or the AL West runner-up.
The O’s have the scheduling edge, but they do spend the first part of this week in Houston. After that, it’s four in Cleveland, two at home against the Nationals and four at home against the Red Sox. Tampa Bay has six games left with Toronto — home this weekend, north the next — along with three games hosting the Angels and two in Boston. Baltimore owns the tiebreaker, so the Rays need to best the Orioles by at least three games to claim the division.
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Biggest movers: Reds and Marlins
In the flux of the NL wild-card race, the Reds did their job by winning a pair of series on the road against bad teams in Detroit and Queens. The Marlins rebounded from a series loss to one first-place team (Milwaukee) by sweeping another (Atlanta), and their playoff odds have jumped the most from last week.
The context around those relatively mild successes: The Diamondbacks preceded Cincinnati at Citi Field by losing three of four. The Giants lost three of four to the Rockies. The Cubs were swept in Arizona. One solid winning streak can probably claim one of those last two spots.
GO DEEPERThree-way tiebreaker? Four-way? Determining the third NL wild card could get nuttyNational League series to watch: Giants at Diamondbacks
It’s a brief two-gamer on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it might represent San Francisco’s last gasp at competitive relevance in 2023. (I mean, unless all these teams in the NL continue to faceplant, but what are the odds of that? Having entered this month percentage points behind Arizona, the Giants have gone 6-10 in September to fall 2 1/2 games behind the Snakes.
The good news all around? Each team has its best pitching lined up: Alex Cobb vs. Zac Gallen in the opener and Logan Webb vs. Merrill Kelly in the finale.
GO DEEPERThe Padres' disastrous season reveals shaky foundation and 'institutional failure'American League series to watch: Mariners at Rangers
A single game separates these two in the AL playoff picture, and they’ll play seven times over the final 10 days of the regular season. It could very well play out as a play-in seven-game series over the week and a half. Texas hosts the first three this weekend, with Jordan Montgomery facing Logan Gilbert on Saturday night the pitching highlight.
The Rangers have won five of six from Seattle so far this season, so they’ll clinch the tiebreaker by taking two of the final seven.
Required reading
- How the Blue Jays, Rangers and Mariners stack up in wild-card race after wacky week
- Determining the third NL wild card could get nutty: Three-way tiebreaker? Four-way?
- How MLB playoffs work: 2023 format, schedule, how to watch
(Photo: Scott Taetsch / USA Today)
Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton
